$1.2 Trillion: How China Shattered Its Trade Records in 2025

⚡MarketPrimes Fast

China’s trade surplus reached $1.2 trillion, setting a historic high.

Exports to the United States fell by 20%, while shipments to the EU rose 8.4%.

Chinese imports remained stable, constrained by falling commodity prices.

Beijing diversified its markets toward Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Trade tensions with Washington persist despite a fragile truce between Trump and Xi Jinping.

AI-generated key points

A Record-Breaking Year for Chinese Trade

China’s economy hit an unprecedented milestone in 2025. The total value of goods imports and exports reached CNY 45.47 trillion (approximately €5.595 trillion), up 3.8% from the previous year. Wang Jun, Deputy Director of China’s Customs Administration, highlighted that it is the first time total trade exceeded CNY 45 trillion, marking a new historic high.

Exports, a key engine of the world’s second-largest economy, grew 6.1% to CNY 26.99 trillion, while imports recorded a modest 0.5% increase, constrained by lower commodity prices. Despite this stability, imports grew for seven consecutive months in certain sectors, indicating gradual recovery.

Historic Trade Surplus Despite U.S. Decline

China’s annual trade surplus surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time, reaching $1.189 trillion, a 20% increase over 2024. This achievement comes amid a sharp contraction in trade with the United States. Exports to Washington fell 20% year-on-year, and imports declined 14.6%, reducing bilateral trade by 18.7% overall.

The contraction reflects persistent trade tensions, intensified by Donald Trump’s return to the White House and targeted tariffs. A fragile truce was reached in October 2025, but Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on countries trading with Iran highlights the ongoing risk of renewed friction.

Market Diversification and Rising Exports to Europe

Facing declining trade with the U.S., China accelerated its market diversification strategy. Exports to the European Union rose 8.4%, shipments to Southeast Asia increased 13.4%, and exports to Africa surged 26%. Latin America also saw growth of 7%.

Wang Jun noted that some countries had politicized trade and restricted access to advanced technologies, limiting Chinese imports. This reorientation demonstrates Chinese companies’ ability to offset the impact of U.S. tariffs by securing alternative markets.

Domestic Market Seeking Momentum

Despite the record trade surplus, domestic demand remains weak. China is working to stimulate consumption to rebalance its economy, particularly amid a prolonged real estate sector slowdown. Zhiwei Zhang, an expert at Pinpoint Asset Management, explains that strong export growth offsets weak domestic demand, acting as a buffer against local slowdowns.

December 2025 highlighted this dynamic: exports in dollars rose 6.6% year-on-year, while imports increased 5.7%. Notably, China’s monthly exports surpassed $100 billion seven times during the year, compared to only once in 2024, partially due to a weaker yuan.

2026 Outlook: Openness and Caution

Chinese authorities anticipate a year of uncertainty in 2026, particularly regarding trade with the United States. Experts believe that China’s strong economic fundamentals will sustain resilience. Zichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics, warns that the trade truce may not hold, but notes that China has the flexibility to protect its interests.

Wang Jun reaffirmed that the Chinese market will open further, continuing its diversification strategy and offering opportunities to global partners. Europe, a historic partner, and other emerging markets are expected to absorb the excess production, while Beijing seeks to balance exports with domestic demand stimulation.