Gold’s rally cools near $4,500 as traders eye pivotal US data and inflation clues

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Gold slipped after briefly touching $4,500 amid profit-taking

Rising geopolitical tensions and Fed rate cut bets still support defensive positioning

Traders await NFP and CPI reports to reassess gold’s short-term trajectory

Technical support remains solid at $4,400, though MACD and RSI suggest momentum loss

Broader trend hinges on upcoming signals from the US economy

AI-generated key points

Momentum stalls as gold meets resistance at $4,500

A fleeting surge in gold prices above the $4,500 threshold gave way to a controlled retreat, following a round of profit-taking by investors keen to lock in recent gains. The metal’s dip, while modest, reflects a broader wait-and-see posture across the markets ahead of high-stakes macroeconomic releases in the US.

This recalibration follows a strong bullish sequence in recent sessions, despite a backdrop marked by heightened geopolitical uncertainty and a dovish undertone from US monetary policy expectations. While appetite for safe-haven assets remains elevated, short-term traders appear focused on upcoming data that could either validate or reverse prevailing market narratives.

Geopolitical tremors fail to derail market corrections

Rhetorical escalations from Washington, notably against Colombia and Mexico, alongside a targeted US operation in Venezuela, have reignited concern over hemispheric instability. Meanwhile, speculation surrounding a strategic acquisition of Greenland adds an unexpected layer to an already fragile global picture.

Despite these risks, equity benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones pushed to fresh all-time highs this week. This divergence between geopolitical risk and stock market performance likely contributed to a mild unwinding of gold positions, as investors reassessed their allocation to defensive holdings in the short term.

Fed outlook continues to anchor gold sentiment

Interest rate expectations remain a central pillar supporting the current tone in the gold market. The CME FedWatch tool continues to indicate firm bets on two rate cuts before the end of 2026, with the first possibly materializing as early as March. This easing bias reinforces demand for non-yielding assets by compressing opportunity costs.

Recent remarks from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin underline the central bank’s data-dependence, amplifying the importance of imminent indicators. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due Friday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) next Tuesday, will serve as critical inputs for assessing whether the Fed will pivot more decisively.

Technical setup remains constructive above $4,400

On the technical front, gold’s 100-hour simple moving average, currently aligned near $4,400, acts as a key area of support. This threshold has consistently absorbed short-term retracements and is seen as a tactical base by many traders.

That said, caution is warranted. The MACD has slipped below its signal line, showing growing bearish momentum, while the RSI sits at a neutral 48.58 a sign that directional conviction is lacking. A move back above 50 would be needed to reignite near-term bullish momentum.

Direction hinges on confirmation from economic indicators

Beyond NFP and CPI, a suite of US macro indicators looms, including the ISM Services Index, ADP private employment data, and the JOLTS job openings report. These metrics will likely shape the next leg for gold either reinforcing current levels or opening the door to deeper pullbacks.

As long as gold prices hover above the $4,400 technical anchor, dips are likely to be absorbed by the market. A decisive break below, however, could trigger a sharper unwinding, even if the broader backdrop continues to justify a bullish long-term stance.