“The killings have stopped”: Trump signals restraint on Iran, sending oil prices sharply lower

Summary:

• International actors, including the UN and EU, continue to monitor and condemn the crackdown.
• U.S. President Donald Trump says the violent crackdown on Iranian protesters has ended.
• Trump signals caution on a potential U.S. military intervention in Iran.
• His remarks ease geopolitical fears and trigger a sharp drop in oil prices.
• The situation in Iran remains fragile, with internet cut and thousands of arrests.

Trump points to de-escalation, without ruling out force

Speaking at a White House event on Wednesday, Donald Trump said he had been informed by “very important sources” that the violent crackdown in Iran had ended. According to the U.S. president, planned executions of protesters would “not take place.” These comments were partially echoed by Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, who confirmed that no executions are expected “for now.”

Despite the softer tone, Trump stopped short of ruling out military action altogether, stating that Washington would continue to “watch” developments closely. The ambiguity stands in contrast with his recent warnings that the United States could intervene militarily to halt what human rights groups describe as one of the deadliest crackdowns since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Human rights groups report a heavy toll

According to Iran Human Rights, the repression has already claimed at least 3,428 lives, a figure the organization describes as a “bare minimum.” More than 10,000 people are believed to have been arrested. The Norway-based group Hengaw has warned about the fate of several protesters facing death sentences, including 26-year-old Erfan Soltani, whose execution was reportedly postponed but whose life remains at risk.

Iran’s population of roughly 86 million remains under tight control. Internet access has been cut for over a week, severely restricting the flow of information. The limited images that have emerged show extreme violence, with protesters shot at close range and hospitals overwhelmed.

Rising diplomatic pressure and regional tensions

International condemnation has intensified. The United Nations said it was “horrified,” while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated that new sanctions against Tehran are under consideration. The United Kingdom temporarily closed its embassy in Iran, Spain advised its citizens to leave the country, and Qatar announced a partial withdrawal of personnel from the U.S. Al-Udeid air base.

Iranian officials, meanwhile, have hardened their rhetoric. Mohammad Pakpour, head of the Revolutionary Guards, warned that Iran is ready to respond “decisively” to any attack. Authorities insist that the situation is now under “full control” and have promised “swift” and “public” trials for detained protesters.

Oil markets react with a sharp pullback

Trump’s remarks had an immediate impact on energy markets. Oil prices fell between 3% and more than 5%, erasing much of the geopolitical risk premium built up earlier in the week.

U.S. WTI crude slid to around $59–60 a barrel, while Brent crude dropped to roughly $63–64. Investors scaled back fears of supply disruptions, particularly involving the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes.

“The risk premium disappeared almost overnight,” said John Evans, analyst at PVM. Others, including Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, cautioned that the calm may be temporary, given the fragility of the regional situation.

A fragile pause in an unstable environment

Beyond Iran, additional factors weighed on oil prices: larger-than-expected increases in U.S. crude inventories, a gradual recovery in Venezuelan production, and easing concerns over export routes.

Still, markets remain highly sensitive to political signals. Trump’s comments provided short-term relief, but the underlying crisis in Iran is far from resolved. In this environment, oil prices continue to respond less to fundamentals and more to geopolitical headlines especially those coming from the White House.